Fast Forward: The Future of Web Video

The web is rife with predictions for 2009, most of which will turn out to be pure bunk. But I must admit I enjoy speculations about the web and related technologies. The web is such an unpredictable beast that it encourages imaginations to run wild. Every now and then, something crazy sticks and becomes the next YouTube or Facebook.

With that in mind, I came across an interesting Mashable posting entitled “Peering into 2009: 10 Predictions for Online Video.” It’s a solid list of predictions and definitely worth checking out. One of my favorite bits:

3. Advertiser dollars will shift to more measurable and targeted online video
Traditional ad dollars will continue to migrate online as advertisers seek to ensure the most impact for their advertising dollars in these difficult economic times […]

eMarketer projects that online video ad spending will increase by nearly 50% in 2009 and reach over $4.5b in 2013. At the same time, consumers will spend more time with web video due to the improved production quality and as an alternative to more expensive leisure activities.

Since the early 2000’s, we’ve been mired in a transition period between TV and the web. Budgets for broadcast design projects have already plummeted, while commercial dollars have been shrinking noticeably over the last few years. Our current economy is only acting as a catalyst for those dwindling numbers.

The measurable ROI of online advertising, meanwhile, is increasingly attractive as advertisers (and, more importantly, their clients) try to get more bang for their buck. I don’t see us returning to the Age of Massive Budgets anytime soon—and I think that’s a good thing. Instead, we’re going to see a gargantuan swell in the number of smaller budget campaigns with web-based video playing a dominant role.

That translates, I hope, into greater creative diversity and a more adventurous attitude regarding experimentation. It’s basically the Long Tail principle applied to online advertising: the sum of advertising dollars will surely grow, but not on concentrated expenditures. It will be spread out across campaigns and platforms.

Content, in other words, will have to share the throne with Segmentation for the title of King. The efficacy of online video advertising will not be based on exposure; it will be based instead on how well a specific audience can be identified and addressed directly. The web makes this laser-like focus possible. Despite the mad profliferation of cable channels, broadcast is still… well, broadcast. A wide net cast over a very deep ocean. And everyone knows all the really cool fish are way, way down there.